A major new study from Talking Talent, conducted in partnership with psychologists at Minnesota State University, reveals a growing disconnect between ambition and opportunity in today’s workplace – raising urgent questions about how organizations build and sustain future leadership pipelines.
The research, titled “Climbing Walls, Not Ladders: Why Tomorrow’s Leaders Need a Stronger Handhold Today,” draws on insights from 1,193 professionals across industries, career stages and demographic groups in the United States. It challenges the traditional concept of linear career progression, showing instead that modern careers resemble a “climbing wall” – complex, non-linear and shaped by structural barriers, life events and workplace culture.
Ambition is widespread – but declines sharply over time
The findings reveal that ambition remains strong, particularly in early careers, but is highly fragile.
More than half (55%) of professionals aged 18-27 aspire to reach the C-suite. However, this ambition declines significantly over time, dropping to 45% among those aged 28-43, 31% in mid-to-late career stages and just 13.8% among those aged 60 and above.
Crucially, this decline is not driven by reduced aspiration, but by a perceived lack of opportunity. Across all groups, “lack of opportunities” is cited as the single biggest barrier to progression.
The study identifies this turning point as an “aspiration cliff” – a critical mid-career moment where individuals disengage, not because they want less, but because they can no longer see a viable path forward. This is compounded by a “visibility gap,” where progression feels opaque, and an “erosion effect,” where repeated experiences of stagnation or exclusion gradually diminish confidence and drive.
Women’s ambition is found to decline faster than men’s, pointing to a significant missed opportunity for organizations to retain and develop early female talent.
Hidden ambition among overlooked talent
The research highlights a striking disconnect between where ambition exists and where organizations are investing in leadership potential.
Caregivers emerge as one of the most ambitious groups in the workforce – twice as likely as non-caregivers to aspire to senior leadership roles. Yet 61% report significant barriers to progression, and 69% say they have been overlooked due to factors such as exclusionary cultures, missed promotions and pay gaps.
Despite developing critical leadership capabilities such as resilience, adaptability and empathy through managing complex responsibilities, many caregivers remain under-recognized and under-supported.
The findings suggest organizations are at risk of overlooking a vital and highly capable segment of their future leadership pipeline.
Belonging is a critical driver of ambition and retention
A strong sense of belonging is shown to be one of the most powerful predictors of ambition.
Employees who feel they belong are 177% more likely to aspire to executive roles. Conversely, nearly half (49%) of those who feel marginalized are actively seeking new opportunities elsewhere.
This highlights the central role of workplace culture in shaping not only engagement and retention, but long-term leadership pipelines. Without a sense of inclusion and connection, ambition diminishes over time – even among high-potential individuals.
Rethinking career progression – from ladders to climbing walls
At the heart of the research is a call to move beyond outdated models of career progression.
Rather than a predictable upward ladder, careers today require lateral moves, pauses and shifts as individuals navigate changing opportunities, personal circumstances and organizational barriers. Success depends on access to “handholds” – support structures such as development opportunities, inclusive leadership, and equitable access to progression.
The report identifies three critical priorities for organizations:
- Invest early in talent through development, mentorship and access to leadership pathways
- Provide holistic support for caregivers, recognizing the value of their skills and experiences
- Build cultures of belonging that actively counter exclusion and unlock sustained ambition
A critical moment for organizations
The findings come at a time of increasing pressure on organizations to address talent shortages, improve retention and build more diverse leadership pipelines.
Without intentional action, the research warns that businesses risk losing ambitious and high-potential individuals before they reach senior leadership – particularly those from underrepresented or overlooked groups.
Dr Mary-Clare Race, CEO of Talking Talent, said:
“This research makes one thing clear: the traditional career path no longer exists, yet most organizations are still operating as if it does. The idea of a predictable career ladder has been replaced by something far more complex, where success depends not just on performance, but on access, support and a genuine sense of belonging. The implication for organizations is profound. If we want to build strong leadership pipelines for the future, we urgently need a new blueprint for success.
“What we see in our research is not an ambition crisis, but a system that is failing to convert ambition into opportunity. Early-career professionals are starting out highly ambitious, but too many reach a point where that ambition stalls because the path forward is unclear or inaccessible. At the same time, we are overlooking entire groups of high-potential talent – particularly caregivers – who bring critical leadership capabilities but are not being recognised or supported to progress.
“Perhaps most importantly, the research shows that belonging is not a ‘nice to have’ – it is fundamental to whether ambition is sustained or lost. When people feel excluded or disconnected, their aspirations do not disappear overnight, but they do fade over time.
“Organizations need to rethink how they define potential and progression – investing earlier in talent, unlocking the potential of overlooked groups, and creating environments where everyone can see a path forward and feel they truly belong. Without that shift, organizations risk losing not just individuals, but the leaders they will depend on in the years ahead.”
To see the full research, visit: https://talking-talent.com/our-work/climbing-walls/
