New data shows just 9.7% of transport and storage businesses expect to raise prices in September – the lowest of any major UK sector, and down sharply from 15.8% in August. Manufacturers and retailers, by contrast, are far more likely to be pushing prices up, says the delivery expert Parcelhero.
New figures from the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) Business Insights and Conditions survey reveal a striking divergence in UK pricing intentions for September, with the transport & storage sector notably more cautious about raising prices than the manufacturing or wholesale & retail sectors. According to the ONS data, only 9.7% of transport & storage sector businesses (including couriers, hauliers and warehousing firms) expect the prices of the goods or services they sell to increase in September – that’s down from 15.8% in August and well below the all-sector average of 14.1%, says the international delivery expert Parcelhero.
Parcelhero’s Head of Consumer Research, David Jinks M.I.L.T., says: ‘That figure of 9.7% is the lowest reading the sector has posted since a mid-year spike in May, when 41.1% of transport firms expected rises, largely thought to reflect one-off cost pressures earlier in the year. Crucially, 60.2% of transport & storage firms say they are not considering raising prices at all in September, a sharp jump from 40.6% the previous month.
‘Where transport firms are contemplating price rises, the two leading factors are transportation or haulage costs (24.3%) and energy prices (22.0%). Notably, the influence of finance costs on the sector’s pricing has collapsed, falling from 13.9% of businesses in August to just 3.6% in September – suggesting the financing pressures that shaped earlier decisions have eased considerably.
‘That’s a markedly different picture to the manufacturing and wholesale & retail sectors, where more businesses are actively weighing up price increases and for different reasons entirely.
‘In manufacturing, 16.6% of businesses expect prices to rise in September. That’s actually down from 22.9% in August, but the proportion not considering any price rise also fell, from 42.8% to 37.2% – meaning more manufacturers are weighing up an increase than the month before. Where they are, raw material prices (36.8%) and labour costs (31.2%) are by far the dominant drivers, well ahead of energy prices (23.3%) and transport costs (22.0%).
‘For the wholesale & retail sector, 19.7% of businesses expect prices to rise in September, a slight uptick from 18.7% in August. Energy prices (25.6%) and transport or haulage costs (24.3%) are the leading factors behind any rises, closely followed by labour costs (20.7%) and raw material prices (23.9%) – a broader spread of pressures than either transport or manufacturing.
‘What’s striking about this month’s figures is that transport & storage – the sector that ultimately absorbs and passes on the country’s haulage and fuel costs – is the one showing the least appetite to raise its own prices. Just under one in ten transport and logistics firms expect to put prices up in September, and six in ten aren’t even considering it. That’s a real change of tone from earlier in the year, when energy and financing costs were squeezing margins hard.
‘It’s also notable that when transport firms do think about raising prices, haulage costs and energy remain the biggest drivers – it’s their own cost base biting, not the broader inflationary pressures manufacturers are facing from raw materials and wages, or retailers are facing from energy and transport combined.
‘Manufacturing tells the opposite story. Even though headline price expectations have eased, more manufacturers are actively weighing up increases than last month, driven by the relentless climb in raw material and labour costs. Retailers and wholesalers sit somewhere in between, juggling energy, transport and staffing costs all at once.
‘For anyone shipping parcels or freight, or running a business that depends on stable delivery costs, this is good news. If the logistics sector itself isn’t planning to pass on higher prices, that should help keep a lid on delivery and haulage charges heading into the crucial pre-Christmas peak season – even as costs elsewhere in the supply chain continue to rise.
‘One final area in which several transport & storage companies are investing money now for a longer-term gain is in the introduction of AI. As Parcelhero’s own research shows, AI adoption among UK transport & storage firms is accelerating fast, and the businesses embracing these tools now will be best equipped to build the resilient supply chain needed to keep control of costs.
Parcelhero’s new report, “Putting the AI into supply chAIns”, explores how artificial intelligence is reshaping logistics, warehousing, shipping, freight and the future of global trade. The full report is available at https://www.parcelhero.com/en-gb/resources/ebooks/putting-the-ai-into-supply-chains-industry-report
